Yankees Catcher and Infield Breakdown
A Breakdown of the Yankees situation at Catcher and the rest of the Yankees infield heading into the Off-Season
In my two previous posts, I discussed the Yankees pitching situation heading into the off-season. Today, I’ll be shifting my attention to the offense. With the exception of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, just about every everyday player regressed or underperformed this year. In addition to their underperformances, several big names are expected to be available through free agency and trades. I’ll be discussing who stays and who goes. I’ll start with Catcher and First Base before working my way around the diamond and talking about the rest of the infield.
Catchers Coming Back: Kyle Higashioka, will be back as the Yankees backup next season. Higgy is an elite pitch framer, has served as the personal Catcher to their ace, Gerrit Cole, and started six out of their last eight playoff games behind the plate. His offensive numbers aren’t great which is why he’s not really an option to start, but he has good splits against lefties.
Might be coming back: It’s time for the annual debate about whether Gary Sanchez should the Yankees Catcher next year. It seems like a long time ago, but just two years ago, Gary Sanchez made his second all star appearance and hit 34 home runs for the Yankees. But after two subpar seasons at bat and behind the plate, he once again lost playing time to Higashioka down the stretch. If he hits like he did in 2016/17 when he emerged as a future Yankees star, or even 2019, his struggles on defense can be overlooked, but when he’s not hitting, his defensive flaws become that much more obvious. At the year end press conference, Brian Cashman was asked about Sanchez’s future and he said, “We’ll see… ultimately we’ll have to evaluate the marketplace at every position.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but he did go on to say he improved defensively as the year went on. To translate, it’s a bunch of GM speak. Some point to Cashman complimenting Gary’s defense as a sign he’ll be back, others point to the fact that he danced and gave a political answer as a sign he’s looking to move on. I’m in the latter camp. I came away from Cashman’s presser thinking Sanchez is less likely to be back then I previously thought. After all, no GM is going to publicly bash a player, especially one they are looking to trade. However, I don’t think the doors been slammed totally shut on Gary’s return. There might not be a catcher on the market who has the ceiling Sanchez has on offense. If he does return, the new Hitting Coach is going to have to figure out how to get him right again.
Going, going, gone: Rob Brantly is the third catcher on the Yankees 40 man roster right now and will almost certainly be cut by early November. He was called up from Scranton 3 separate times, once when Higashioka got Covid, once when Sanchez got Covid, and the day of the AL Wild Card game as an emergency third catcher. Brantly is a 32 year old career minor leaguer who played 133 major league games across seven seasons from 2012-2021. He’s been on five different major league rosters and has played in five other organizations. This winter, he’ll be looking for a new organization to continue his career.
Possible 40 man roster additions: The Yankees have two catching prospects who are Rule 5 eligible this off-season, Donny Sands and Josh Breaux. Breaux is the better prospect, but he isn’t as major league ready. Sands, who was drafted out of high school in 2015, is a good defensive catcher, but it wasn’t until this year where he broke out offensively hitting .261/.326/.466 (.793 OPS) between Double A Somerset and Triple A Scranton. Breaux is the better offensive catcher. He hitting 23 home runs and had an OPS of .801 between High A Hudson Valley and Somerset. However, he’s only caught 103 games at the minor league level and still needs time to work on his defense. Some scouts think he could eventually move out from behind the plate and play first.
Additions from Outside the Organization: The catching market is thin this year. Buster Posey is technically a free agent, but there’s a better chance of hell freezing over then Posey not being on the Giants opening day roster next year. Mike Zunino, who had a breakout year offensively with the Rays, is the best catcher who could be on the move this off-season. He only hit .216, but he hit a career high 33 home runs, and slugged a mind blowing .559. He’s also an elite pitch frame, good plate discipline, and finished with a wRC+ (weighed runs created one of the best offensive metrics) of 134. He still probably won’t end up in New York. The Rays have a club option and even if the penny pinching Rays didn’t want to pay Zunino $7 million, they’d probably cash in on his value while it’s at the highest it’s ever been and trade him. The Yankees probably wouldn’t be a good trade partner for Tampa. One of Cashman’s strength over the years has been making trades, but Rays GM, Eric Neander, also rarely loses trades. Willson Contreras is the only other option that would be a potential upgrade offensively. Contreras has been an above average offensive player since his debut in 2016. His wRC+ has never dropped below 100 (the league average) and he’s also fast for a catcher. He’s one of only 11 catcher in all of baseball who Statcast has above the 50th percentile in sprint speed. Cashman cited athleticism and speed as areas where the Yankees need to improve. It’s more likely that the Yankees will go the defensive route if they look to replace Gary Sanchez. One of the best defensive options would be Tucker Barnhart, who’s won two Gold Glove Awards for the Reds. Manny Pina is another strong option behind the plate because of his pitch framing abilities. The drawback of bringing in Barnhart or Pina is they are below average hitters while the Yankees could benefit from having an elite defensive catcher, they’d be adding somewhat of an automatic out to their lineup. Speaking of automatic outs, Roberto Perez has a team option that the soon-to-be Guardians will probably decline, but there are pitchers that can hit better.
First Base: First Base is one position that is totally up in the air right now. Nobody is guaranteed to be back. Deadline addition, Anthony Rizzo, is going to be a free agent and Luke Voit, the incumbent, was dangled in trade talks at the deadline. With the exception of Shortstop, this is the most position where we’re most likely to see a new face on opening day.
Might Be Back: As I noted early, Anthony Rizzo will become a free agent after the World Series. Overall, Rizzo was solid after coming over from the Cubs. Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 with the Yankees and .248/.344/.440 overall while hitting 22 home runs. He had a wRC+ of 112 between the two teams. These aren’t the kind of number he put up during his peak when he was a regular at the all star game, but still solid. Despite the low batting average, he only struck out 15 % of the time, which is pretty good consider the average hitter strikes out 24% of the time. He was also viewed as a leader in the clubhouse. He also regressed defensively posting negative defensive runs saved (DRS) for the first time in his career. At his year end press conference, Brian Cashman said he would consider extending Rizzo. That doesn’t mean they will or should. Rizzo turned down a five year $70 million dollar contract extension from the Cubs before his trade to New York. Giving Rizzo, a 32 year old who’s already showed signs of decline, a five year would be a mistake. DJ LeMahieu, who’s a year older than Rizzo signed a six year $90 million dollar contract last off-season. While a triceps issue and possibly a hernia affected his play, he was one of the bigger disappointments in the Yankees lineup this year. Having LeMahieu and Rizzo manning the right side of the infield the next five years when they are both on the wrong side of 30 would hurt more than it would help in the long run. That being said, the Yankees went 39-22 after they acquired Rizzo. If Rizzo wants to come down to two year, three max, and you strike out elsewhere, then maybe you think about it. Chris Gittens is also still on the 40 man roster. Gittens has been productive in the minors his entire career, but struggled in limited major league playing time going 4-36 in his young career. On the bright side, he did walk seven times in 44 plate appearances and he has minor league options so he can continue to develop in the minors. He’s in a similar situation to Nick Nelson as I mentioned in my posted about the bullpen. Yes, they have minor league options and they can spend more time getting reps in Scranton, but if you were ranking every player on the Yankees 40 man roster, he’d be towards the bottom.
Going, going, gone: Luke Voit was almost traded at the deadline and it seems like a forgone conclusion he will be traded this winter. After leading the league in home runs during the Covid-shortened 2020 season, he went on the IL four times, and pretty much lost his job to Rizzo and 38 year old, Brett Gardner, down the stretch. Voit was at least somewhat productive when he was healthy and in the lineup. He hit 11 home runs in 68 games and finished with a wRC+ of 111. Considering he led the league in homers just last year and he’s still arbitration eligible, they should be able to find a taker.
Potential 40 Man roster additions: First base is an area where the Yankees are thin on minor league depth and it’s unlikely they’ll add a Rule 5 Draft eligible first base prospect to the roster. The most likely internal candidate to be the “First Baseman of the future,” would be a catcher like Austin Wells or Josh Breaux that has a good bat, but needs further development on defense.
Additions From Outside the Organization: If they don’t extend Rizzo, there are plenty of upgrades at first base. The biggest name is Freddie Freeman, but like Buster Posey, he’s not going anywhere. The Braves will most likely give him an extension guaranteeing the former MVP and five time all star a number retirement ceremony at Truist Park the summer after his playing career is over. Especially, if he can lead them to one more win and get them to the World Series. But it’s ok that Freeman’s probably not available because Matt Olson is just as good, if not better, than Freeman. Olson made his first all star game appearance and set career highs in every major offensive category both old school and new school, standard or sabermetric. In addition to the impressive offensive display, Olson is the favorite to win his third Gold Glove. The A’s still have control of Olson for two years but they are notoriously cheap and with their ambiguous stadium situation and relocation rumors surfacing, they could start to tear it down and rebuild having finished six games out of the playoffs. Many believe that if Olson does hit the trade block that the Yankees would be well positioned to land him. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll be cheap. The package would like start with Voit and another big league quality infield whether it’s Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, or Top 100 prospect, Oswald Peraza, who debuted in Scranton late in the season. The Yankees would likely also have up two more prospects, at least one of them a pitcher, that are either on the 40 man or Rule 5 eligible. If the price for Olson proves to be too steep, Josh Bell would be a cheap alternative. Bell doesn’t get a lot of publicity because he started his career in Pittsburgh and played on the last place Nationals in the shadow of Juan Soto, but he is an excellent backup plan. After a terrible April where he started slow because of a positive Covid test, he had a 129 wRC+. The 6’4 255 pound switch hitter is the type of hitter the Yankees would love to have. He’s walked during 11.8 percent of his plate appearances in his career. He also hits for power and doesn’t strike out. The only season he struck out more than 20% of his at bats was 2020, during the pandemic shortened season. This year, he was one of four Major League First Baseman with a walk rate above 10 percent, a strikeout rate below 20 percent, and an Isolated Power (slugging-batting average, measures a players ability to hit for power) over .200. The other three? I’ve already mentioned two of them, Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson. The other? MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero. Oh, and by the way, he also had the best defensive season of his career.
That’s all for First Base and Catcher where there is a very good chance we’ll see change. I’ll cover the rest of the infield the next time. May the force be with you.
The Rest of the Infield: The rest of the infield is up in the air. One of the spots, however, will be manned by DJ LeMahieu. After being an MVP candidate his first two years with the Yankees and earning a six year $90 million extension, LeMahieu took a big step back in 2021. He slashed .336/.386/.536 (.922 OPS) and won a batting title in 2020. He also hit a career-high 26 home runs in 2019. His high average combined with an increase in power and good defense led to back-to-back Top 4 finishes in MVP voting. This year, he took a big step back. He hit .268/.349/.362 (.711 OPS) and only a league average wRC+ of 100. His 10 home runs matched his output for the pandemic-shortened season. He had a triceps strain in late July into August that he played through and his season ended prematurely because of a hernia, so that might have had some effect on his play. However, he is 33 years old and his previous two seasons were by far his best so that could point to regression or decline. He has a no trade clause for the 2022 season so he’ll start at either 2nd or 3rd base next year.
Most Likely Back: Like I said in my pitching post, the Yankees have several top prospects on their 40 man roster. One of them is Shortstop, Oswald Peraza. The 21 year old is ranked in the Top 100 by several publications. He started the season in Hudson Valley and played 28 games before being promoted to Somerset. At Somerset, he played 79 games hitting .294/.348/.466, before being promoted to Scranton for the final stretch. He played 8 games in the last two weeks with Scranton. He finished the year a combined .297/.356/.477, 18 home runs and 38 stolen bases. Breaking it down by level, he had a very good 144 wRC+ at Hudson Valley, a still very good 122 wRC+ at Somerset, but only a 90 wRC+ during his short Scranton. He likely would have done better at Scranton if he had more time to adjust so the drop of over the small sample size isn’t too alarming. There’s not as much available minor league fielding data, but scouts have him rated as a good fielder so Peraza is a well rounded player. The reason I put him in the most likely back section is because he’s a valuable trade chip and if the Yankees want a guy like Olson, they might have to give him up. Middle infield is considered one of the strength of the Yankees farm system. They have Oswaldo Cabrera, who I will talk more about later on, at Triple A, top prospect Anthony Volpe likely starting the 2022 season at Double A, and they drafted Shortstop Trey Sweeney, and Second Baseman, Cooper Bowman early in the draft this year. Sweeney and Bowman both got off to strong starts in the minors. Backup infielder, Rougned Odor, is also likely to return. You don’t want him playing every day, but he’s not a bad backup. His best stretch of the season came when he was forced in the lineup due to injuries and a Covid outbreak in July and August, however he had a rough September. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s free labor since Texas agreed to pay the rest of his contract in the trade that sent him to New York back in April.
Might Be Back: Almost every infielder on the Yankees roster in 2021 falls into this category. The two biggest question marks are Gleyber Torres and Gio Urshela. Torres and Urshela both had disappointed seasons. Both finished with wRC+ below average. Torres’s decline was more alarming. He went from hitting 38 homes runs as a 22 year old in 2019 to only 9 this year in addition to his poor defense at shortstop. His defense was subpar in 2019 too, but like with Sanchez, when a guy’s not hitting, his other flaws are more noticeable. Torres acknowledged early on that he was pressing because he wanted to match or surpass his home run total from 2019. Torres did however improve late in the season offensively and defensively after being moved back to Second Base, where he spent almost half his games in the 2019, and most of the 2018 season. Urshela wasn’t even on the opening day roster before his breakout season in 2019. He had a wRC+ over 130 in 2019 and 2020 while wowing fans with his flashy defense. He had a combined 5 DRS in 2019-20 so the numbers matched the eye test. Not only did he regress on offense but he regressed on defense. Many used the term, “juiced ball merchant,” to explain Urshela’s poor offensive performance and it does make sense. Before his breakout in 2019, the Indians and Blue Jays both waited for Urshela’s bat to catch up to his glove before giving up on him. Which one can bounce back? Can anybody of them bounce back? Both of them? I think Gleyber’s still the one with a better long term future. Obviously he’s younger, but this year, he walked more, struck out less, and he’s a better base runner. Despite not having blazing speed, he still managed to steal 14 bases which was second on the team. Urshela was the better power hitter and defensive player this year, but the new Hitting Coach might be able to unlock some of the power that Gleyber showed when he first came up in 2018 and 2019. He might never reached 38 again without the juiced balls, but you have to think he can at least hit 20. Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez made an impact in August and September due to injuries. They’re both similar players because they’re both fast and play multiple defensive positions, but are light hitters. At this point in their careers, they are what they are, backup infielders who can make an impact as pinch runners or defensive replacements late in the game and provide depth. With the potential 40 man roster crunch, it doesn’t seem necessary to keep both on the roster. I think Wade has the edge over Velazquez, who’s Bronx roots made him an instant fan favorite in New York. Wade is more versatile defensively and has been a slightly better hitter throughout his career. However, because he’s eligible for arbitration, he would cost more money. Velazquez also has a minor league option which means unlike Wade, they can send him back and forth between the Bronx and Scranton without having to put him through waivers.
Possible 40 Man additions: Oswaldo Cabrera’s breakout in Double A has him on the brink of the majors. The switch hitting infielder was voted the Double A Northeast League MVP in large part because he unlocked his power swing. He hit a career high 24 home runs, .492 slugging percentage, and .236 ISO on top of stealing 20 bases. Like Peraza, he was promoted to Triple A for the final stretch of the season and totally dominated. He went 15-30 with five home runs, two doubles, a triple, a .583 on base percentage, and a 1.113 Slugging percentage. It’s a small sample size and considering people don’t even put up these type of numbers while playing MLB The Show on easy, he wouldn’t have been able to keep it up a whole season, but he more than proved that he belongs. In addition to the newly discovered power, he had the highest walk rate of his career and is a versatile defender. He’s played second, third, and short throughout his minor league career.
Additions From Outside: Considering the lack of production at shortstop and the fact that it’s the most loaded free agent class shortstop class ever, it’s seems like the Yankees will almost certainly sign a big name shortstop in the off-season. Despite the bad blood, Carlos Correa should be at the top of the list. Correa was the one of the best players in baseball this year. Baseball Reference had him leading all American League position players in WAR (7.2). Had it not been for Shohei Ohtani’s historic performance as a two-way player, as well as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. chasing a triple crown and finishing with OPS over 1.000, Correa would probably find himself in the MVP conversation. He also had a career high 21 DRS. Correa did speak highly of New York City in a recent interview, but it could just be a ploy to drive the price up. Hal Steinbrenner’s nowhere near the spender his father was, but he’s shown when he’s given Cashman payroll flexibility, that they can still land some big fish. Hal approved the Giancarlo Stanton trade and the signing of Gerrit Cole. If he let’s Cashman write whatever check he wants to Correa, then there’s a good chance Carlos Correa will be a Yankee assuming the burying the hatchet won’t be too hard for either side. If they miss out on Correa, Corey Seager and Trevor Story would also make great additions to the Yankees roster. They’ve all been linked to the Yankees early on. Buster Olney, linked Correa and Seager to the Yankees, and Jon Heyman predicted in his article that the Yankees would come away with Seager. Yes Network’s Jack Curry, who’s probably the reporter most in tune with the Yankees also mentioned Seager by name. Seager would be a strong lefty bat that the Yankees have been missing. However, Cashman did cite defense and athleticism as areas where they need improve which indicates to me that if they miss out on Correa, Story would be the better option. Story has 69 career DRS and has had three 20-20 seasons in his six year career in Colorado. All three players would have different role expectations coming to New York. Correa and Seager would probably eventually move to Third when Anthony Volpe comes up and Story would be a shorter term stop gap. There’s an outside chance the Yankees could move LeMahieu to first and add a new Third Baseman. Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, and Corey’s brother Kyle Seager would be some potential replacement in that unlikely scenario.
That’s all I have to say about the Yankees catching and infield situations. Expect a lot of moves this winter. Next time, I’ll discuss the outfield. May the force be with you.